Marketability is a Loop, not a Funnel
To dive deper into marketability, please check out our podcast with Joe Schaeppi (CEO of 12traits) and Jesse Lempiäinen (CEO of Geeklab).
I’ll be completely honest with you. My views on the importance of marketability have shifted radically over the years.
Early on, back when I was working on social games for Facebook canvas, what we perceived as marketability was a string of ads on the Facebook news feed aimed at a vaguely perceived audience. In practice, it meant showing various farming, frontiering, city building, and theme park images to ladies in the US between 25 to 50 years old and making the call for the next game based on the image that received the most clicks.
As the development and most importantly marketing costs (CPI) kept increasing the need to de-risk the project was becoming more and more important. Over the last few years we evolved from testing the CTR (click-through rate) to testing the IPM (install per 1000 impressions) off the bat with services like Geeklab. Services, that allowed us to create fake app pages so that we could test not only how likely players would engage with the various ads for our game but how likely they would actually install the game after entering the app store page.
But despite the better tools, I still wasn’t a believer in marketability testing. The reason was that I had seen first hand how marketability could give false positives. In one particular case, we did two re-skinned versions of a top-grossing mobile game based on marketability tests. Both re-skins had far higher IPM than the original game. Yet despite having exactly the same product with clearly more marketable themes only one of the re-skins became a global hit. The other title (that had the highest IPM we’d seen) failed utterly. In other words, while high IPM led to lower CPI, the lower CPI didn’t correlate with positive ROAS (return on ad spend).
Thus until last year I was convinced that the only way to effectively de-risk your project is to launch as fast as possible. Put something out that is not even good enough. A game with the target theme, target art style, and somewhat unpolished gameplay that could last for roughly three days. Case example Penny & Flo, Tactile’s latest game currently in early soft launch.
Tactile’s Penny & Flo shows perhaps the most reliable way to de-risk a project - ship fast and polish if it floats.
Today, nevertheless, my view on marketability testing has evolved. I continue to believe in shipping as fast as possible, whether soft-launching in smaller markets or utilizing opportunities such as Google Play’s public beta program. But I also understand that before you commit those six hard months in making the first publicly playable version of your game you should validate who you’re making the game for. When you understand your players beyond demographics and surface-level interests, you will not only be able to lower your IPM through optimized creatives but also design your game to truly serve your players.
Marketability is a loop. You have to constantly understand your evolving player base better while constantly improving your messaging to your players.
Focus groups, when done correctly, are a great tool to understand your players. But the problem with focus groups is that they are very expensive, time-consuming, and often out-of-reach for most small-to-midsize developers. The results from focus group tests tend to also be highly reliant on the individuals leading the research.
A good substitute for focus groups is using a player insight platform (I’ve personally used 12Traits at two different companies). You may have different themes in mind that you can test. You may also have a benchmark game(s) in deconstructed that are helping you to position your product. But without knowing who your players are, what moves them, and why they are playing what they are playing now your likelihood of designing a game for them grows slim.
In short, with the more improved and cost-effective tools, we’re able to start making a game for target audiences from the get go. And by deeply understanding the motivations of our audience we are able to market to them more effectively. Will this lead to a sure shot hit games? It’s not guaranteed, but I for one will take anything to improve my odds in making one.
Key Takeaways for Your Studio
Validating marketability early on is a must to any and every free-to-play developer. CPI is the single most important metric in your business case.
Example:
At the most basic all you need to have is a set of game ideas, such as a strategy game with pirates, Vikings, modern war, and a post-apocalypse setting.
And all you need to do is have your 2D artist paint over various game scenes set in-game engine with purchased asset packs depicting those chosen different themes. And if you don’t have an artist, contract one. It will be the best investment you will make early on.Don’t try to game the marketability test. You’ll be the one that loses in the end.
Common mistakes are having a high interest in something you’re not even offering (fake ads) or high interest from players who are fundamentally wrong for your game. For example, if you’ve trying to validate your strategy game theme, using images from the latest Assassins Creed may resonate well and lead to high marketability. Problem is, that’s not the game you’re making.
In the post-IDFA era, the role of creatives will be even more for your business case. Understanding your players down to their traits will evolve your creatives from a shotgun into a homing missile.
We tend to talk about demographics, interests, and other games our target players might be playing. And while those variables can help to create audiences in campaign managers, they don’t guide us in designing audience first, nor making creatives that truly stand out to our players.
